Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we aim to paint a medium-term picture of liquidity, growth, and inflation—and how these factors will impact your allocation.

It seems The Donald has a penchant for late Friday tariff announcements, keeping markets on edge for a second consecutive Monday open. This pattern is starting to take shape, though we likely need a third occurrence before drawing statistical conclusions.

The concept of reciprocal tariffs, which Trump floated on Friday, is about as “fair as it gets.” To be fair, he’s correct in stating that the U.S. generally imposes lower import tariffs than its trading partners. According to the most up-to-date database managed by the World Bank, emerging markets like India and Brazil levy significantly higher tariffs relative to the U.S., making them particularly vulnerable in the week ahead.

Europe, on the other hand, maintains relatively low tariffs, while China is now nearly on par with the U.S. after recently introducing an additional 10% charge on Chinese products. In our view, this reciprocal story primarily impacts emerging markets, while Europe is actually well-positioned. Following a strong start to the year, this presents Europe with a solid opportunity to regain export market share lost since 2020 (see Chart of the Week).

Chart of the Week: Europe is losing in the export race. US tariffs to the rescue?

We are, of course, actively managing this risk in our strategy at Asgard-Steno Global Macro and are up almost 4% YTD (on a low-risk ), which is very satisfying given the tricky and choppy market conditions.budget

In the bigger scheme of things, we find it unreasonable to panic over Trump’s tariff policy. The reciprocal approach aired on Friday is the most benign outcome possible, as it will likely lead to a race to the bottom on tariffs rather than the opposite. Why should India, Brazil, and the EU, for example, simply ignore the reciprocal tariffs instead of lowering their own to contain the damage done to their local consumer and corporate base?

The bottom line is that I think it is vastly overstated to claim that Trump is against global trade. He is rather for an equal playing field.

In the following, I will cut through the noise and examine the medium-term prospects for liquidity, inflation, and growth cycles—which generally still look promising.