China made a 5-6 standard deviation move, happening just ahead of a significant influx of liquidity in both USD and CNY markets. Despite global softness in labor market data trends, this influx is noteworthy, and the Fed is considering rolling out 1-2 liquidity tricks to bolster the outlook.

Before we head into Q4, the looming risk of a strike at East Coast ports in the U.S. adds a layer of concern. Already, volumes have shifted to the West Coast as the unions there refuse to handle rerouted ships if the strike materializes, potentially crippling half of the U.S. trade​.

We expect the White House to put all efforts into resolving this issue, as empty shelves ahead of the election would fuel the “Kamala-zuela” narrative (which, admittedly, is unfair at this point). If the situation is addressed, we could be looking directly at a major influx of liquidity, which could soon become a significant market topic.

Here’s why!

Chart of the week: A major shift in shipping volumes ahead of quarter-end