Signs of weak demand in China are evident in the crack spread swaps between Dubai crude oil and Singapore gasoil. Since 2023, the average price of crude oil rose to $80, increasing refiners’ margins to $25. However, these margins have now dropped to $17, even though crude oil remains $20 more expensive per barrel than pre-COVID prices, indicating refiners are unable to improve their profit margins despite higher oil costs. For more on Chinese demand see here.