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Macro Nugget: The demand outlook in China is not pretty

The local demand in China remains on the floor, which is an issue for the broad commodity.
2024-08-01
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/ulriksimmelholt/" target="_self">Ulrik Simmelholt</a>

Ulrik Simmelholt

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Signs of weak demand in China are evident in the crack spread swaps between Dubai crude oil and Singapore gasoil. Since 2023, the average price of crude oil rose to $80, increasing refiners’ margins to $25. However, these margins have now dropped to $17, even though crude oil remains $20 more expensive per barrel than pre-COVID prices, indicating refiners are unable to improve their profit margins despite higher oil costs. For more on Chinese demand see here.

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