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Macro Nugget: Recession probabilities in the Eurozone are off

The EZ has a lower recession probability than the US.
2024-07-29
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/ulriksimmelholt/" target="_self">Ulrik Simmelholt</a>

Ulrik Simmelholt

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Last week, PMI figures were released for France and Germany by Insee and Ifo, respectively. France experienced a significant decline, while Germany’s performance remained lackluster following the 2022 energy crisis. Comparing this data from the two largest economies in the Eurozone with the robust figures from the US, the recession probabilities for both the US and Eurozone, as indicated by Bloomberg data, appear to be completely off.

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