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Macro Nugget: Good luck with your projection, Powell

Fed is projecting unemployment rate at 4.3% in 2025
2024-12-19

Fed’s median UE rate projection for 2025 was lowered by 10 bps and now sits at 4.3. Jobs hard to get less jobs plentiful still suggesting that we should see a 3 pp increase from the 1 yr min over the next 1-2 qtr. We might have a pivot to the pivot in the beginning of 2025

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