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Macro Nugget: German inflation has stagnated above 2.5%

Thoughts on German HICP and price expectations.
2024-07-31

German inflation has remained above 2.5%. These levels are usually observed at the peak of the inflation cycle in the pre Covid era, yet we are currently experiencing them at the cycle’s low point. We doubt that we will see HICP inflation in Germany at 2% at all, and if they continue cutting into this, the plateau around 2.5% will prove to be the cycle’s bottom.

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