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Iran World War

Flash Update: Trump Seeks an Off-Ramp as Peak Fear Hits

Trump’s strike on Iran risks escalating tensions, but with both sides seeking an off-ramp, markets may be overpricing the threat of a broader conflict.
2025-06-22
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

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Written by Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno 

Last night, President Trump carried out the anticipated strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities at Forlow.

You probably all know the backdrop, so let’s look ahead. Trump is under immense pressure from his Republican support base not to start a new war, which means he wants this over with quickly—as he has also stated. That opens up an opportunity for Iran. If they can hold out for 2–3 months (like the Serbians in 1999), they threaten to derail Trump’s domestic and global agendas: the big, beautiful bill, the trade talks, Ukraine, etc.

Trump needs an immediate off-ramp. That’s why the U.S. seemingly went out of its way to signal that this was intended as a one-off strike—perhaps even informing the Iranians of their intent.

Trump’s strike on Iran risks escalating tensions, but with both sides seeking an off-ramp, markets may be overpricing the threat of a broader conflict.

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