Everybody and their mothers are waiting for the election now. It’s driving investment decisions, markets, rates etc. – so let’s dig a little deeper into what you should look out for this Tuesday.

1) Kamala could win

Yeah – Polymarket was approaching 70% chance of a Trump win until lately and it seems like everyone is pricing in a second presidency. But in my view, that’s still overstated. Not that Trump doesn’t have an edge in polling (he does), but polls could still prove to be wrong in either direction. Some of the usual key predicting factors are very hard to judge this time around. How big is the turnout going to be? We can compare the early voting numbers to 2020, but that was a pandemic year, so is that really clearing things up? And in any case, the usual truth of Democratic voters being less likely to turn out might not prove true this time around as this chart from NYT/Siena suggests.

Fact is – we simply don’t know if the turnout is going to be at 2016, 2020 or even higher levels – and we don’t even know for sure if a record turnout means a Kamala win as would usually be the logical conclusion. And remember that while Trump has an edge in polls, both parties are still within margin error’s distance of a blowout win. So we have to treat this faceoff as almost a coin toss even at this point. All these uncertainties leads me to agree more with bigger election analysis models like Nate Silver or the Economist, who put the election probabilities much closer than Polymarket at 55/45 in favor of Trump. So – Trump is still the most likely winner, but you gotta be prepared for a Kamala win.

Since markets have mostly priced in a Trump win, we could see some initial turmoil after a Kamala win. Many investors will be wary of her spending pledges as well as her ideas on price control. We might see a drop off in some of the more Trump-leaning stocks and areas, including crypto, while some of the non-Elon tech companies might take positive to a Democratic administration where they will perhaps have a greater saying. However – even if Kamala does win the presidency, she still has to get her policies past the Congress…

2) Who takes the Congress

No matter who wins the presidency, we know that control of the Congress is key to their ability to pass and implement new legislation, including spending, tax cuts etc. Right now, we’re looking at a very clear