Week at a Glance – The Litmus Test for Our Weakening Growth Thesis
Greetings from Copenhagen.
After two weeks where the economic calendar has been extremely quiet, we now have the most important week of the month, with ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, and NFP on the menu. This comes at a crucial turning point in US macro, where tariff expectations likely made December and January data look artificially strong as US companies frontloaded imports ahead of tariffs.
We have been alluding to a continued drop in macro surprises over the past week, as our nowcast model on the US has weakened throughout February. This is exactly what happened before the growth scare in July, keeping us on our toes regarding the outlook for risk assets and the US economy over the coming week.
In addition to the nowcast weakening, we have seen a sharp decrease in government spending throughout February after the January inauguration and the DOGE initiatives, which—regardless of their potential positive implications in the medium/long term—means less liquidity in the short term.
The calendar is packed this week, so let’s get straight into it!
Chart 1: Barely Any Government Liquidity Added on a Net Basis in February
After two weeks of silence in the economic calendar, we are back in full swing with ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, and NFP being released this week, which is the ultimate test for our weakening growth thesis.
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