Morning from Copenhagen.

The U.S. retail sales figure last Friday marked the last significant data print in quite a while, with the economic calendar more or less empty for the next two weeks, which means that we have zero triggers to change the current trends across asset classes and geographies.

In short, this means that U.S. bond yields will move lower together with the USD (where USDJPY is THE best bet – see chart), European equities will continue performing, and gold/precious metals will extend the rally seen over the past couple of weeks, as we still have no news on tariffs (other than the messages from Trump last week sounding very benign regarding his true intentions behind reciprocal tariffs).

Our firm conviction going into this week is that the tariff/policy volatility premium in bond yields—which we have witnessed since the election—will continue to be priced out while the “no news” environment will put further fuel to the precious metals rally. However, that trade is obviously running on fumes now that we have a (although vague) time schedule for tariffs to arrive within the next two to three months, and the turn in the COMEX inventory data on gold is probably a good metric to use as an exit criterion in gold.

It’s not very compelling to follow the trends when you look at the charts on gold, European equities, and the like, but this is sometimes exactly when you should jump into the trades!

Chart 1a: Bond Yields vs. Economic Surprises