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The Ultimate UFC Showdown: Trump vs. Powell – Who Gets Your Vote?

One demands cuts, the other preaches patience—will Powell dodge the pressure, or will Trump land the ultimate rate-cut knockout?
2025-01-29

Good morning from Copenhagen—big day ahead with both the Fed and BoC meetings on deck.

All eyes are on Powell during today’s press conference, as traders will try to gauge whether a March rate cut is a realistic possibility. Currently, markets are pricing in a 32% probability of a cut.

While there hasn’t been any significant data suggesting the need to accelerate the first cut of 2025, the composition of voting members at the Fed has shifted notably more dovish compared to 2024. Although hard data hasn’t confirmed anything, market-based inflation expectations (such as inflation swaps) have remained well-contained since the December meeting. This reinforces confidence that current rates are restrictive enough.

Chart 1.a: The Fed Has Contained Inflation—for Now

One demands cuts, the other preaches patience—will Powell dodge the pressure, or will Trump land the ultimate rate-cut knockout?

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