Morning from Copenhagen!

Not much to report from early trading, as markets are holding their breath ahead of what could be the biggest macro event in years later today. So let’s focus on what really matters right now—our full Liberation Day guide is here!

We are watching four major trends ahead of what promises to be a very interesting Liberation Day:

1. Trump Administration Tariff Strategy
   How will the Trump administration handle the implementation of tariffs? Will it pursue a global, one-size-fits-all approach, or will there be exemptions for countries like Vietnam and Israel, which front-ran Liberation Day by removing barriers on U.S. products just yesterday? 
2. Reversal in Metals Trade?
   Will the massive front-running of tariffs in metals—particularly gold and copper—reverse course after today? We are already seeing early signs of exhaustion in both of these trades. 
3. Bond Yields and the Technical Setup
   Will the developing head-and-shoulders pattern in U.S. bond yields play out, potentially paving the way for significantly lower yields—contrary to current consensus expectations? 
4. U.S. Risk Assets vs. the World
   Will U.S. risk assets regain momentum relative to the rest of the world in the aftermath of Liberation Day?

Liberation Day is shaping up to be a pivotal moment, and we believe it most likely points toward a one-size-fits-all tariff regime. The White House has stated that the Trump tariffs will take effect “immediately” following the official announcement, which strongly suggests that simplicity and speed of implementation are the administration’s top priorities. 

Granting country-specific exemptions or tiered tariff levels—while theoretically possible—would introduce complexity and delays that run counter to the urgency implied by the messaging. As such, our base case is that the administration will opt for a broad, uniform tariff framework applied across the board, at least in the initial rollout. The only feasible scenario for exemptions would be full country-level exceptions, such as for Vietnam and Israel.

Let’s take a closer look at the four major questions we’re focused on ahead of the conclusion of Liberation Day One—one at a time.