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Something for your Espresso: Will non-farm feed the fear?

The position squaring melt-down continues as TOPIX is the latest victim. It takes a massive NFP report to alter the current trends and the risk/reward in betting on such is not particularly compelling.
2024-08-02
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

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It’s been another nasty morning in macro markets and the current position squaring triggered by the USDJPY move over the last weeks arrives at a very peculiar timing as we have entered the summer holiday season.

It seems like the string of soft manufacturing PMIs reignited the growth scare, and as we have alluded to over and over, Manufacturing PMIs are a lot more important to markets than Service PMIs as they are seen as a bellwether for broader economic trends.

The july activity was nasty low in both China, Sweden and the US, but the forward looking details still look pretty decent if we set aside the volatility (see chart 1a and 1b)

Chart 1a: Swedens details remain OK

The position squaring melt-down continues as TOPIX is the latest victim. It takes a massive NFP report to alter the current trends and the risk/reward in betting on such is not particularly compelling.

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