Something for your Espresso: Weak hiring and solid activity?
Good morning, and happy NFP Friday!
Overnight, we received confirmation that the U.S. dockworkers’ union has agreed to return to work today after negotiating a wage increase with employers. This is positive news, as about 43 cargo ships were waiting outside the port for a resolution. The strike, which lasted approximately three days, impacted businesses and establishments, but they can now breathe a sigh of relief. We expect the strike to have minimal effect on both inflation and employment.
It will be interesting to monitor our nowcast model for shipping volumes in the coming days to assess the actual impact of the disruption and monitor how the traffic jams in clearing cargo ships.
Chart 1.a: Port Congestion in the Gulf and Eastern Region
One weak NFP report and rates could drop significantly, but a >200k report will likely challenge the front-end anchoring of the dot plot. There’s a lot at stake today, and we’ll guide you through how markets are positioned.
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