Morning from Copenhagen.

It’s somewhat of a quiet week across markets, and our best guess is still that the trends observed in gold, European equities, and the like will continue both this week and next, even as European risk sentiment sours today after fresh comments from Trump on auto and pharma tariffs—although the timeline remains vague.

Today is a great opportunity to take a closer look at some of the ongoing macro developments across economies and share some insights from our model package now that the economic calendar is as silent as a bat.

The ongoing credit expansion globally seems to have fallen completely under the radar, as people are often too focused on credit creation within the central banking system, with the ON RRP, TGA, and balance sheets taking center stage in liquidity discussions on social media and other channels.

EUR and GBP credit has been lagging behind the expansion of U.S. private credit, but we are seeing strong signs of life in European credit creation, both in money supply and loan volume terms (just look at Spanish mortgage credit!). This coincides perfectly with the ongoing rally in European equities—which we believe will continue in tandem with improvements in European macro.

Chart 1a: Spanish Mortgage Credit Is Through the Roof!