Morning from Copenhagen.

Tariffs are back in the headlines after Trump and Lutnick took time yesterday to refresh their thoughts on reciprocal tariffs, setting a hard deadline of April 2 while simultaneously further postponing tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While this was relatively benign news, market dynamics are clearly shifting. We have seen equities become increasingly sensitive to even the slightest uncertainty, as we may be staring at a turning point in US macro. This also explains why the news on European tariffs yesterday—though largely unsurprising—still sent European and US equities down significantly.

Our US nowcast on growth continues to slow day after day—a signal that has historically been costly to bet against over the past year. As a result, we are leaning increasingly bullish on bonds, especially with DOGE and Elon actively pushing the “lower bond yields” narrative publicly.

The softening US macro picture has been a reliable leading indicator for the USD over the past year, and we are currently looking at another 2–3% drawdown over the next month.

Chart 1a: US Growth Keeps Weakening