Happy Tuesday everyone and welcome to our morning read.

The most important chart in macro remains the 10yr bond yield in the US, as we are glued towards the top of the recent bearish trend channel for bond yields. It remains important for the ongoing melt-up in high-beta risk assets in USD, including Nasdaq and BTC, that the easing cycle remains on track despite a (growing) list of arguments against further rate cuts.

We have noticed how bond markets have refrained from bidding yields aggressively through the 4.40% handle, likely mostly due to technical considerations, but probably also to some extent due to more fundamental reasons, such as the supply outlook and the lack of traded inflation pressures in the West.

We are staring directly into a debt ceiling on the other side of New Years, while oil- and energy prices trade at levels that are in line with a 10yr bond yield in the range 3.75% to 4.00%.

It sounds trivial to discuss whether the long bond yield remains in a downtrend, but it is probably of utmost relevance for the broader Santa Rally, which now includes all-time-highs in BTC and Nasdaq, which we have thankfully participated in.

Chart 1a: The most important chart in Macro – the 10yr US bond yield