Towards the end of May, the economy has shown signs of slowing, as indicated by a dip in the truck market demand index.

While freight rates have continued to rise on a weekly basis, the pace of these increases has moderated compared to the significant rallies observed in previous weeks.

The liquidity outlook remains weak until the Treasury resumes issuing more T-bills in July. As a result, the reflation trend has paused, prompting us to trade the short side of several major metals to capitalize on this pause. We anticipate that economic momentum will likely resume by mid-June, as the liquidity tide starts to turn again.

Chart 1a: Some signs of a softer month-end in May