Morning from Copenhagen.

The Trump trades are still going strong despite silence across most assets as we await NVIDIA’s earnings release tomorrow. However, given the price action we’re seeing across the crypto space, markets are still all-in on risk assets, with both BTC and SOL continuing to rally. Last week, inflows into BTC surged as MSTR made its largest BTC purchase, while Ethereum retraced from 3,360 all the way down to 3,000.

The Trump victory has put inflation back in the picture once again, despite the Fed having already taken a victory lap back in June/July. The questions now are: 1) whether a Trump administration is as inflationary as markets initially thought (yields are down since the victory was declared, so probably not), and 2) whether the Fed can credibly focus on inflation again, given the potential loss of credibility from switching back and forth between mandates. Short-term inflation swaps have traded higher in November (partly due to the roll, with the 1-year inflation swap now filtering in hot prints from the past three months), but markets are slowly starting to price inflation as a theme again.

But is the Trump administration really that inflationary? Recent developments suggest otherwise.

Chart 1: BTC continuing to outperform – Trump trades are still alive!