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Something for your Espresso: A Trump victory is the overwhelming market base case

While everyone is focused on the election results, significant stress is building in liquidity markets, currently masked by election coverage. The Fed and the Bank of England face a crucial test this week.
2024-11-05
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

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Good morning from Copenhagen, where we’re gearing up for an exceptionally exciting day.

We see Trump as the base case for the election. This view is also reinforced by the Trump vs. Harris basket we track (email [email protected] if you’d like the full basket details in a spreadsheet), which has shown a decisive shift in favor of Trump up until late last week.

In light of this, we’d actually argue that a Kamala Harris victory would trigger larger initial market moves, while the reaction to a Trump win will largely hinge on messaging from Trump and Vance regarding fiscal deficits. Notably, even Vance has cautioned about a potenti      al “global elitist” attack on U.S. Treasuries if Trump secures the victory.


Chart 1.a: Trump is the clear market base-case

While everyone is focused on the election results, significant stress is building in liquidity markets, currently masked by election coverage. The Fed and the Bank of England face a crucial test this week.

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