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Crypto Crisp: Up Is Soon The Only Way

The fourth quarter looks highly bullish for crypto, driven by increased U.S. dollar liquidity, strong seasonal trends, Chinese stimulus, and positive factors like the post-Bitcoin halving and low interest rates. However, in the short term, we would prefer to see a drop in open interest in the Bitcoin futures market to ensure it is not overly leveraged.
2024-09-30

We have emphasized multiple times that we have been eagerly anticipating the fourth quarter of this year, driven by numerous factors that make us extremely bullish.

With September’s liquidity squeeze now behind us, we expect U.S. Dollar liquidity to rise significantly through the remainder of the year. Additionally, there are several other strong tailwinds: robust seasonal trends, Chinese stimulus measures, the post-fourth Bitcoin halving phase—which historically delivers substantial returns—the possibility of positive focus on crypto during the U.S. presidential election, and a market that tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, many of the reasons for which were discussed in Crypto Moves #42.

By the end of this fourth quarter, we are highly confident that digital asset prices will be much higher. However, in the short term, we aim to clear out the excess open interest in the Bitcoin market, as highlighted in Chart 4.

Now, let us turn to the major news from the past week.

The fourth quarter looks highly bullish for crypto, driven by increased U.S. dollar liquidity, strong seasonal trends, Chinese stimulus, and positive factors like the post-Bitcoin halving and low interest rates. However, in the short term, we would prefer to see a drop in open interest in the Bitcoin futures market to ensure it is not overly leveraged.

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