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Crypto Moves #39 – The Token Unlocking Saga Is (Mostly) a One-Way Down Game

You can be quite certain: token unlocks tend to drive digital asset prices down. The data from this year overwhelmingly supports this, though there have been a few rare instances in the past where significant returns were missed during major token unlocks.
2024-08-15

In recent years, we have seen a surge in new crypto projects launching with billion-dollar market capitalizations right from the start. This trend includes projects like Aptos, Sui, Celestia, and others. If you examine the top 100 cryptocurrencies, it is evident that the list increasingly comprises recently launched, highly hyped cryptocurrencies that boast valuations that would make many Nasdaq-listed companies envious.

However, there has been a notable shift in how these cryptocurrencies are launched. Unlike during the 2017 initial coin offering (ICO) era, when retail investors played a significant role, these projects now primarily rely on venture capital funding long before launching a token. In return, these projects have introduced measures to prevent immediate token sell-offs by the team and VC backers. By limiting the available supply, they not only secure higher market capitalizations at launch but also protect retail investors from being left holding the bag while insiders cash out quickly.

One of the key strategies they have implemented is the use of vesting periods. These periods delay the availability of tokens for early holders, meaning they cannot flood the market with tokens right after the launch. The chart below illustrates the vesting schedule for one of the largest Layer 2 solutions on the Ethereum blockchain, Arbitrum, from its launch last year through the end of 2025.

Chart 1: Arbitrum Token Unlocks

Below is the vesting schedule for the Sui cryptocurrency, covering the period from its launch in mid-last year until the end of 2025.

Chart 2: Sui Token Unlocks

You can be quite certain: token unlocks tend to drive digital asset prices down. The data from this year overwhelmingly supports this, though there have been a few rare instances in the past where significant returns were missed during major token unlocks.

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