Just two days ago, Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 milestone for the first time, reaching a peak of $104,000. This achievement is highly significant, not only because it represents a critical psychological threshold but also due to the immense media attention such milestones attract. Historically, this kind of coverage has often spurred increased interest from retail investors, who may be prompted to purchase Bitcoin as a result. Over the past month, Bitcoin has performed even more strongly than we anticipated.

However, we now find Bitcoin trading below $100,000 once again, leaving us with the million-dollar question: will it close above $100,000 on New Year’s Eve? To explore this, we have gathered a few charts that might shed some light on the answer. At the conclusion of this note, we will also share our perspective on what lies ahead.

Let us first examine the bullish charts.

The bullish charts

First, the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience substantial inflows, highlighting robust demand for these products. In November alone, net inflows reached a record-breaking $6.2 billion—the highest monthly figure ever recorded. December is already showing strong momentum, with nearly $2.3 billion in inflows so far, suggesting that the final tally could match or even surpass November’s historic numbers. With such overwhelming demand for Bitcoin-focused ETFs, it becomes increasingly difficult to keep the Bitcoin price down.

Chart 1: Monthly U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Net Flow