Crypto Crisp: More Friendly, Still Overbought
Last Thursday, I shared my conviction in our Telegram crypto chat:
My two cents: We touch $100,000 (or very close) but we do not comfortably get on the other side. This makes all the leverage and open interest (and retail euphoria) turn against us.
After witnessing the Bitcoin price face repeated rejections since then, I am even more confident in this view. I anticipate that Bitcoin will dip below $90,000—potentially as low as $80,000—before making another serious attempt to breach the $100,000 level. This is especially likely given the current extreme readings on the Fear and Greed Index. Additionally, last week’s $5.4 billion Bitcoin acquisition by MicroStrategy was insufficient to push us comfortably above the $100,000 threshold.
We are witnessing a growing trend of crypto-friendly regulatory environments, with the UK now aligning itself alongside the U.S. and Europe. While this regulatory progress is more of a longer term development, in the very near term, market conditions suggest we are overbought.
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