Welcome to our weekly editorial on crypto, macro, and the interlink between the two.

The crypto market has been hit by extreme fear over the last couple of trading days alone (see the index here), which historically has been a good time to jump on the wagon. However, with renewed tariff pressures and mounting uncertainty, is there value in waiting a bit? We have a series of macro releases next week that will likely shake the market significantly.

To put crypto into a macro context, our general view is that the U.S. macro picture is changing quite dramatically, which—regardless of how you view the fundamental side of crypto—will impact performance. As we head into March, the effects of DOGE will start to appear in official data prints. At the moment, markets are struggling to assess the true impact of tariffs and DOGE on the U.S. economy. While it’s relatively easy to acknowledge the consequences for targeted regions like Europe, China, and Canada, the domestic effects remain uncertain.