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Crypto Watch: Markets Brush Off Geopolitics, Growth Surprises Ahead

Middle East tensions fade, household spending holds, and equities push to highs. Don’t fight the drift—reflation risk is back on the table.
2025-06-26
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/samshiffman/" target="_self">Samuel Shiffman</a>

Samuel Shiffman

0

Good day from Copenhagen,

We were spot on last week, calling that the drama in the Middle East would vanish by midweek and allow risk to resume. We are now seeing the Nasdaq trade near all-time highs, Bitcoin back above the 100k handle. The classical “U.S. gets involved, everyone calms down” dynamic has enabled risk assets to stabilize.

From a very technical perspective, flushing out bulls enabled the trend to reset within this summer bull market. Overall, total crypto market cap simply squeezed below lows, bounced from the 38.2% Fib, and has now regained its bullish flag. If we break above this structure, we could see market cap test previous highs. Next level after that would be the extension Fib, right around $4.43T!

Chart 1.a: Bullish Flag forming for Crypto’s market cap

Middle East tensions fade, household spending holds, and equities push to highs. Don’t fight the drift—reflation risk is back on the table.

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