Crypto Watch: Don’t Overthink It – Just Buy the Dip
Geopolitics Are Spicy, But So Is Alt Season
The recent risk-off tone in markets is largely being driven by rising tensions in the Middle East. Trump’s statement suggesting the U.S. may eventually get involved in Iran has unsettled investors, dampening the bullish momentum we saw earlier this month. That said, this feels like a familiar script from Trump — go aggressive early, then walk it back later. It’s reminiscent of the “TACOS episode” we’ve seen him do too often. Unless something escalates dramatically, like a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a nuclear strike (which we believe remains highly unlikely), the pressure is more likely to force Iran to the negotiating table. Israel’s ability to inflict significant damage early on, thanks to its intelligence apparatus, has likely constrained Iran’s capacity to retaliate meaningfully.
In short, we see this as a textbook “buy the dip” setup, especially in crypto, which should be insulated from the idiosyncratic geopolitical risks tied to this conflict.
Chart 1.a: You should just buy the dip
Middle East tensions may be stirring fear, but crypto isn’t flinching. With altcoin momentum building, institutional tailwinds gathering, and sentiment still neutral, this looks more like a setup than a setback. Don’t overthink it—just buy the dip.
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