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In the second edition of Crypto Moves, published almost exactly a year ago, I shared this conviction:

“Perhaps the only thing you want to know is: Do we expect the Bitcoin halving to cause a new run?”

“The short answer is yes. The market has three times in a row stressed everything but the ability to price the supply shocks from halving’s. As we do not believe that you can teach an old dog new tricks, we do not think that the fourth time is the charm for the market to have priced this supply shock in advance.”

At that time, Bitcoin was priced at around $37,000. Today, it stands at $98.500 per Bitcoin.

In addition to revisiting Crypto Moves #2, we encourage you to read Crypto Moves #22, where we explained why we expected the fourth halving to follow a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern shortly after the event, followed by significant price appreciation.

In this edition of Crypto Moves, we assess Bitcoin’s current position in its historical 4-year cycle. The 4-year cycle is fundamentally tied to Bitcoin’s halvings, which occurs roughly every four years and halves the mining block reward. This process has now taken place four times, reducing the reward from 50 bitcoins per block to just 3.125 bitcoins per block.

Observing how closely today’s price dynamics mirror those seen after the last three halving events may tell us something about the future. It increasingly seems that the crypto market is indeed quite stupid, as it simply failed once again to account for the supply shock from the fourth halving, even though things are no longer as they once were.

For clarity, here is the history of Bitcoin halvings:

Chart 1: Bitcoin Halvings History