Daily Post

Tariff headlines continue to wrongfoot market participants, leaving the market misallocated relative to fundamentals. Today’s Chinese copper rally is the latest example—watch out!

Our models continue to suggest that growth will come down in the U.S. (and China), while Eurozone growth for now is holding up remarkably well. What is the playbook as we go into March, where DOGE and weaker sentiment will lead growth lower?

With the economic calendar silent for yet another week, it’s all about being on top of the underlying macro trends, which look to continue even with a couple of inflation prints on Friday, while NVIDIA earnings on Wednesday is the big macro risk this week.

We are seeing pretty firm signs that the tariff premium in commodities like gold, copper, and the like will fade going forward, making it less compelling to chase metals prices higher.

The January meeting minutes were much softer than expected, and QT is set to come to a halt this spring, with some inflationary effects being overlooked. This should pave the way for a weaker USD.

We are still firm in our view that European macro will start to gain speed relative to the U.S., and there are plenty of ways to play it, both in equities and rates!

Asian equities are suddenly in the limelight again as tech optimism grows in China – is it time to get in? We are not far off.

With no major data releases to challenge market momentum, this week is all about following the trends – the USD and USD bond yields will continue lower while European equities and gold will continue to rally are our clear convictions!

The reciprocal tariffs were staged as a major gamechanger for markets and global trade trends, but we haven’t gotten any meaningful messages yet. Are reciprocal tariffs just a negotiation tool turned global?

European equities are flagged all over our model package as the best trade on earth currently as the US and European macro cycle starts to diverge—meanwhile, China is back in the abyss after a massive move in Hang Seng this morning.

Relative value is the keyword in this tariff madness, as everything is moving further away from fundamentals as we speak. Loads of value in both commodities and rates bets here!

Right as we thought tariff talks were bad for growth and slightly inflationary in the short-term risk assets and global equities are celebrating like we were in a Gung Ho environment – what’s going on?

While the tariff headline continues, underlying developments in macro suggest that the disinflationary environment continues in the US economy – bond yields will come down this week!

With NFP coming up later today, we have compiled the best charts and observations to look at ahead of the report.

It’s pretty clear now that Trump, Bessent and Powell are working in unison to bring down long-end bond yields, which is the clear trend now in Fixed Income as global bond indices are heavily bid.

Trump is increasing uncertainty and hurting both the economy and risk assets in an attempt to do the opposite. Are there ways to shield yourself from the ongoing geopolitical landscape? We believe so!

Trump is throwing tariffs left, right, and center—only to delay them and call it a deal. Where are markets going in all this madness? Ultimately, this is bad news for the USD and US equities, but it could be very decent for China!

The first tariffs are now in place, hitting Mexico and Canada with 25% and China with 10%. Markets initially reacted negatively, but equities have since rebounded from the European open. Key economic data this week will reveal whether growth remains strong or tariffs will derail momentum.

Why the Fed Might Not Be Out of the Woods Yet—And How Deregulation Could Lower Yields Instead

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting allowed the USD to weaken on a trend basis as yields have been given the green light to soften further, while risk assets will likely thrive in the environment Powell outlined.

One demands cuts, the other preaches patience—will Powell dodge the pressure, or will Trump land the ultimate rate-cut knockout?

Trump really willing to push for tariffs if it means higher inflation?

With tech giants set to report earnings and both the Fed and ECB meeting, this week promises to be an exciting one. Will AI spending and a dovish Fed stance counteract the negative tech sentiment of this morning?

Trump is scaling back on China tariffs, and it seems obvious now that he is working on some sort of tech deal between China and the US, which leaves his policy-mix very loose compared to initial expectations – and he is doing it while the US economy is running hot, making us wonder whether bond yields have not topped yet. 

Liquidity is flowing beyond central banks, creating a clear reflationary signal and fueling risk appetite. Cutting through the noise, the simultaneous rise in inflation, growth, and liquidity points to a powerful macroeconomic shift, with the Fed potentially adding fuel to the fire.

Similarly to launching his meme coin, Trump’s focus remains fixated on short-term wins at the expense of long-term stability. Why should ballooning debt be any different when immediate gratification is the priority?

A look at MXN and CAD on the back of Trump tariffs announcement.

While a stronger economy and contained inflation data have let risk assets rally towards the latter part of last week, the current digital asset projects from Trump have delivered more fuel to the rally.

China is improving in GDP terms as we round the week, but what does that mean for risk assets and the macro picture?

Yesterday’s softer-than-expected core CPI print fueled a relief rally in risk assets, though mixed signals from CARTS and diffusion data suggest the inflation narrative remains uncertain. Today’s Retail Sales report will be crucial in determining market direction, with strong consumption trends pointing to upside risks, but conflicting indicators adding a layer of caution.