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Samuel Shiffman

Something For Your Espresso: The Inflation Mirage, Cooling Prices or Just a Pause?

Something for Espresso: China Plays Softball, Japan Gets Serious, and Bonds Plot Their Comeback

China’s growth engine is sputtering, Japan’s finally waking up with inflation, and the USD is wobbling under bond seasonality and Fed liquidity magic. Throw in an oil-yield breakup and slowing U.S. services, and you’ve got a market cocktail worth watching!

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China Watch: Forget About the BRICS Currency – China Wants to Impact the USD from Within

China Watch: Forget About the BRICS Currency – China Wants to Impact the USD from Within

The Chinese issuance of USD-denominated bonds in Saudi Arabia may seem negligible on the surface, but it holds significant signal value for the direction of the USD. If China feared a strong USD – or planned a devaluation – this would be an odd move. It could also signal a farewell to gold as a key strategic asset.

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Trump Watch: Possible U-Turn on Tariffs?

Trump Watch: Possible U-Turn on Tariffs?

Could the Trump administration prove to be less brutal on trade now that Musk and Vivek have fully endorsed the Milei policy mix? We take a closer look at Elon Musk’s supply chains and how they might influence the Trump administration’s stance.

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Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets

Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets

Markets are front-running an anticipated U.S. liquidity surge, yet in Europe, the ECB’s slower response to liquidity challenges is adding pressure. Meanwhile, in China, growth appears artificially propped up by official targets rather than driven by real demand, with domestic consumption remaining weak.

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Positioning Watch: What if Trump leads to lower bond yields? 

Positioning Watch: What if Trump leads to lower bond yields? 

This week’s market update reflects a cautious yet pivotal moment as investors digest the U.S. election outcome, with Donald Trump’s win and a likely Republican sweep. While market volatility has eased, positioning flows in equities, bonds, and FX suggest a mix of profit-taking and strategic rebalancing that sets the stage for what could be a transformative period ahead.

Something For Your Espresso: The Inflation Mirage, Cooling Prices or Just a Pause?

Something for your Espresso: Navigating the Bond vigilantes

It’s been an eventful 24 hours in the bond space, likely offering a first glimpse of the volatility we can expect with next week’s election. The term premia scare remains very much intact, but underlying supply and inflation fundamentals suggest it should fade as risks subside.

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China Watch: Elevator Up, Elevator Down… The Most Hated Rally in History?

China Watch: Elevator Up, Elevator Down… The Most Hated Rally in History?

We saw the worst day in the Hang Seng since Lehman yesterday, but China used the opportunity to “feed the rally” with something to look forward to—a briefing on fiscal stimulus on Oct 12. Here is a comprehensive overview of the far-from-impressive stimulus announced thus far.

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Something For Your Espresso: The Inflation Mirage, Cooling Prices or Just a Pause?

Something for Your Espresso: The Boy Who Cried Wolf

China’s upcoming fiscal policy briefing follows market disappointment over the lack of major stimulus, triggering a sell-off in Chinese assets. Confidence remains low despite cheap credit, and the PBoC’s limited measures offer little relief. The real solution lies in significant fiscal action to restore demand and stabilize the market.

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Something For Your Espresso: The Inflation Mirage, Cooling Prices or Just a Pause?

Something for your Espresso – How much stimulus does it take to fuel an economy?

China is coming through with stimulus proposal after stimulus proposal, which has fueled the China rebound story once again. When is the turning point where stimulus is actually helping the economy? Few of their initiatives have worked previously, so it’s difficult to expect a different outcome this time around.

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