Middle East tensions fade, household spending holds, and equities push to highs. Don’t fight the drift—reflation risk is back on the table.
Crypto Watch: Don’t Overthink It – Just Buy the Dip
Middle East tensions may be stirring fear, but crypto isn’t flinching. With altcoin momentum building, institutional tailwinds gathering, and sentiment still neutral, this looks more like a setup than a setback. Don’t overthink it—just buy the dip.
Crypto Watch – Beneath the Surface, a Rotation Begins
While equities and bonds wrestle with volatility and policy noise, crypto is quietly setting up for a rotation. Beneath the surface, macro resilience, expanding credit, and receding liquidity stress are realigning the playing field. With Bitcoin consolidating, the path is opening for altcoins to take the lead into summer.
Crypto Watch – This Rally Needs a Buyer: MicroStrategy Can’t Carry It Alone
As sentiment hits extremes and macro tailwinds fade, the burden of this rally rests on shrinking shoulders.
Crypto Watch – From 13s to Tailwinds: When Technicals Meet Fiscal Rotation
Bitcoin shows exhaustion, Ethereum flirts with breakout, and Japan hints at yield relief. With tariffs fading and fiscal heat rising, the stage may be set for a summer altcoin surge.
Crypto Watch: Damned if you do, damned if you don’t
As confidence cracks in the bond market and policymakers abandon fiscal restraint, the mother of all debasement trades is gathering steam. Hedge funds are waking up to a world where trust—not spreadsheets—defines value.
Crypto Watch: Crypto’s Summer Rally Has Until August — Then It Gets Complicated
Forget China — this rally is powered by quiet credit expansion in the West and a softening dollar. Broad money is doing just enough to keep the wind at crypto’s back, but come August, the tide could turn fast.
Crypto Watch – Road to 135K: Bitcoin Breakout in Motion
Bitcoin just cleared its last major technical hurdle, signaling that the bearish momentum is finally broken. With macro, liquidity, and positioning all turning supportive, this could be the setup for a new leg higher—led by China’s stimulus and Europe’s rate cuts.
Crypto Watch: Treasury Buybacks, BoJ Wobbles, and Bitcoin’s Signal
Treasury buybacks, soft data, and global easing are pushing yields down and breathing life into risk assets — with Bitcoin leading the charge.
Crypto Watch: The bottom is most likely in
The earlier decoupling from risk assets, the long-awaited decline in bond yields, easing liquidity conditions, and efforts to stabilize the sell-off in long-end bonds all point toward a potential bottom in crypto. Here’s why.
Crypto Watch: The Best (Worst) Outcome for Risk Assets
Trump’s latest U-turn is arguably the best worst-case scenario for risk assets. Why? Because up until yesterday’s announcement, the most likely path forward involved a forced and reactive Fed intervention—stepping in to provide emergency liquidity in a worst-case scenario where funding markets completely broke down.
Crypto Watch: Quantitative Tightening has effectively ended
Liquidity Floor: The Bond Put Is Quietly Propping Up Crypto
Something For Your Espresso: The Inflation Mirage, Cooling Prices or Just a Pause?
Why the Fed Might Not Be Out of the Woods Yet—And How Deregulation Could Lower Yields Instead
The Ultimate UFC Showdown: Trump vs. Powell – Who Gets Your Vote?
One demands cuts, the other preaches patience—will Powell dodge the pressure, or will Trump land the ultimate rate-cut knockout?
Something For Your Espresso: Is Ballooning Debt Just Another ‘Hoax’ Like Climate Change for Trump?
Similarly to launching his meme coin, Trump’s focus remains fixated on short-term wins at the expense of long-term stability. Why should ballooning debt be any different when immediate gratification is the priority?
Something for Your Espresso: BoE or BoC? Britain’s Central Bank Faces Its ‘Eh’ Moment
With inflation cooling and markets teetering, the BoE might just trade in its tea for maple syrup. Meanwhile, across the pond, the US CPI is brewing a hawkish storm, reminding everyone that taming inflation is no walk in the park.
Something for Your Espresso: Payroll Roulette: Will the Jobs Report Roll Snake Eyes or a Lucky 7?
From whisper numbers and payroll predictions to revisions, wage growth, and unemployment trends—here’s why this could shape market sentiment amidst rising rates and a resilient labor market.
Crypto Nugget: A Reality Check for Altcoins in Q1
Altcoins, Liquidity, and the Business Cycle: Brace for the Q1 Squeeze
Something for Your Espresso: Who’s Playing Catch-Up – The Fed or the ECB?
As the Fed and ECB navigate different paths, markets wrestle with rate cuts, QT, and shifting inflation dynamics.
Something for your Espresso: Dragons, Doves, and Deutsche Drama: A Global Economic Soap Opera
China’s Yuan slides as stimulus whispers grow louder, the Fed hints at a December rate cut despite its September reaction function misaligning with current data, and Germany struggles with rising wages amid industrial decline
Something for Espresso: China Plays Softball, Japan Gets Serious, and Bonds Plot Their Comeback
China’s growth engine is sputtering, Japan’s finally waking up with inflation, and the USD is wobbling under bond seasonality and Fed liquidity magic. Throw in an oil-yield breakup and slowing U.S. services, and you’ve got a market cocktail worth watching!
China Watch: Forget About the BRICS Currency – China Wants to Impact the USD from Within
The Chinese issuance of USD-denominated bonds in Saudi Arabia may seem negligible on the surface, but it holds significant signal value for the direction of the USD. If China feared a strong USD – or planned a devaluation – this would be an odd move. It could also signal a farewell to gold as a key strategic asset.
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Something for your Espresso: Fed starting to support the bond case again
The meeting minutes from the Fed supported the US Treasury investment case, and we continue to see signs of lower bond yields in the US, which also spills-over to the USD despite tariffs threats.
Something for your Espresso: The Fight for Treasury, no profits and China and Europe in the doldrums
Another weak month for Europe, with the EUR taking a significant hit as markets price in a 50bps cut from the ECB. Meanwhile, profits remain elusive in China, leaving the US as the “cleanest shirt in the laundry.”
Trump Watch: Possible U-Turn on Tariffs?
Could the Trump administration prove to be less brutal on trade now that Musk and Vivek have fully endorsed the Milei policy mix? We take a closer look at Elon Musk’s supply chains and how they might influence the Trump administration’s stance.
Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets
Markets are front-running an anticipated U.S. liquidity surge, yet in Europe, the ECB’s slower response to liquidity challenges is adding pressure. Meanwhile, in China, growth appears artificially propped up by official targets rather than driven by real demand, with domestic consumption remaining weak.
Something for your espresso: THWACKED by Powell’s ruler, animal spirit could be contained (for now)
“We’re in no rush to cut rates”—think of us as the cautious turtle, not the reckless hare.
Flash Macro Watch: The Fed has abandoned its 2% target
The Fed is not returning to 2% inflation this cycle, as we’ve suggested for some time. The question now is how this will shape returns in USD, fixed income, Crypto and equities heading into 2025, given that the Fed will ease regardless.
Positioning Watch: What if Trump leads to lower bond yields?
This week’s market update reflects a cautious yet pivotal moment as investors digest the U.S. election outcome, with Donald Trump’s win and a likely Republican sweep. While market volatility has eased, positioning flows in equities, bonds, and FX suggest a mix of profit-taking and strategic rebalancing that sets the stage for what could be a transformative period ahead.
Something for your Espresso: The Liquidity Crisis No One’s Watching… Will Central Banks Finally Hit the Brakes on QT?
While everyone is focused on major central bank decisions expected today, significant stress is building up in liquidity. The Fed and the Bank of England both are about to deliver 25 bps decreases.