With tech giants set to report earnings and both the Fed and ECB meeting, this week promises to be an exciting one. Will AI spending and a dovish Fed stance counteract the negative tech sentiment of this morning?
Something for Your Espresso: Liquidity is increasing everywhere – just not within central banks
Liquidity is flowing beyond central banks, creating a clear reflationary signal and fueling risk appetite. Cutting through the noise, the simultaneous rise in inflation, growth, and liquidity points to a powerful macroeconomic shift, with the Fed potentially adding fuel to the fire.
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Spending Watch – Where is the Consumer Heading From Here?
The consumption part of the economy is probably THE macro variable to watch in 2025. We provide a detailed overview of the state of the consumer across the US, Eurozone and China here!
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The Week at a Glance – Trump is Letting Risk Assets Rally into a Red-Hot Economy
While a stronger economy and contained inflation data have let risk assets rally towards the latter part of last week, the current digital asset projects from Trump have delivered more fuel to the rally.
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Something for Your Espresso: Retail Sales Deciding the Direction for the Risk-On Rally
Yesterday’s softer-than-expected core CPI print fueled a relief rally in risk assets, though mixed signals from CARTS and diffusion data suggest the inflation narrative remains uncertain. Today’s Retail Sales report will be crucial in determining market direction, with strong consumption trends pointing to upside risks, but conflicting indicators adding a layer of caution.
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Week at a Glance – A hot inflation report is the last thing markets need
Reflation is roaring across global economies, and higher inflation on a trend basis is the last thing markets need – but it might be what they get. While that’s not overly bearish for risk assets in the medium term, it might be the final nail in the coffin for equities short-term.
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Something for your Espresso – Bond riot on a global scale
We are witnessing a severe repricing of global bond yields, and the rise in inflation expectations is now a global phenomenon more than a local one. Bond yields are looking nasty here.
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Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!
It might be time to load up on European risk as Germany is moving towards an easier fiscal policy stance, which in turn may force the ECB to soften up on balance sheet projections as Bunds (and other European govies) are already trading at extremes versus the swap.
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Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty
Germany faces mounting challenges as political uncertainty and economic pressures collide. With no clear coalition emerging, February 2025’s election could lead to prolonged gridlock. Global trade tensions, potential U.S. tariffs, and sluggish manufacturing growth weigh heavily. Can new leadership or a shift in the anticipated course for the U.S. trade policy provide the course correction Germany needs?
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The Week at a Glance – The largest company about to report – fuel for the Nasdaq bet?
Despite less data points from the US compared to last week, this week is packed with market-moving events: BoJ’s indecision stirs yen weakness this morning, NVIDIA’s earnings could light up the Nasdaq, and UK CPI may shift inflation expectations. Add rising US mortgage rates and housing data to the mix, and markets are set for a volatile ride. Stay sharp – opportunities abound.
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Something for your Espresso: Why the U.S. Over Germany is the Trade to Watch
While markets try to digest the effect of the inflation prints and the Republican Sweep – we stick to our trade: long U.S. over Germany equity trade amidst Germany’s political and China-exposure headwinds looks like a no-brainer.
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Steno Signals #126: Disentangling the ECB Schnabel speech – How will QT develop from here?
Suddenly everyone from bond to equity investors are talking about asset swaps in Germany. How should we read the latest signals from the ECB? Is QT close to ending?
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Week at a glance: Key US Data Releases and Germany’s Political Upheaval
We will likely see a week of soft data from the US, with upcoming soft inflation and retail sales reports. Meanwhile, the German snap elections are drawing closer.
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Germany on the Brink: Political Chaos, Economic Stagnation, and European Swap Spreads writing history
Is Germany at risk of turning into a French bond/equity case in line with what happened after Macron called for snap elections earlier this year? Let’s dive into the details of the German case here.
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