Happy Monday from Copenhagen!

As usual, we use Monday to look ahead at the upcoming week.

We are currently focused on the Nat Gas trade, which is trending aggressively upward due to 1) Ukrainian disruptions affecting the remaining MCMs flowing through the Brotherhood pipeline, 2) the upcoming Norwegian maintenance season, and 3) very early signs of bottoming demand.

It still seems mostly driven by the supply side, with the current drawdown in supplies via Sudzha in Russia accounting for around 0.5% of daily inflow. However, this has the potential to become a significant driver, with up to 5% of daily flow potentially disappearing.

We remain long (since last week).

Chart 1a: Flows into Ukraine partially disrupted

Chart 1b: European demand is not rocketing up..