Steno Signals #177 – Another ill-timed flip-flop from Jay Powell?
Most risk-takers were caught off guard by Powell’s attempts to bring the Fed ahead of the hawkish repricing last week. Will this prove to be another incredibly ill-timed flip-flop from the Fed? To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The...
Macro Nugget: Good luck with your projection, Powell
Fed’s median UE rate projection for 2025 was lowered by 10 bps and now sits at 4.3. Jobs hard to get less jobs plentiful still suggesting that we should see a 3 pp increase from the 1 yr min over the next 1-2 qtr. We might have a pivot to the pivot in the...
Macro Nugget: Germany nose diving into a 2025 recession
Today the full Ifo deck was released and looking through the data couldn’t help but leave one feeling very concerned about the German economy. Take orders to inventory whose m/m drop was the largest since March 2020. Up until now services have carried the German...
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